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Mizoram polls: Three-way contest threatens Congress' last remaining govt in North East, says CVoter

Editor's Note: The following report is based on a continuous mood of voters survey conducted by CVoter once a week since August through telephonic interviews. The survey was not commissioned by Firstpost.

The Congress is on the verge of losing its last remaining government in the North East, according to CVoter analysis done for ABP News and Republic TV.

According to the pollster, this development is significant for the grand old party considering Mizoram's favourable demographic profile.

Seat share

CVoter predicts that the Congress will win only 12 seats (compared to 34 in 2013), the MNF (Mizo National Front) will win 17 seats (up from five in 2013 ) and the ZPM will win 9 seats (up from one in 2013).

Vote share

The data shows a highly-competitive three-way race between the Congress, MNF, and Zoram People's Movement (ZPM). The MNF, which is projected to garner 33.1 percent of the vote share, is leading the Congress, which is estimated to win 29.4 percent of the vote share. The ZPM is nipping at the Congress' heels, with a projected 27.4 percent vote share.

This is a massive change compared to the 2013 Assembly election where the Congress under Chief Minister Lal Thanhawla (who has been in power since 2008) won 44.6 percent of the vote share, and the MNF and ZPM won 28.7 percent and 23.6 percent respectively.

Best candidate and preferred candidate

For 27.3 percent of the people polled, Congress' Lal Thanhawla is the preferred candidate. MNF's Zoramthanga received 25.4 percent of votes, while ZPM's Lalduhoma nabbed 24.6 percent of the vote. In a straight contest between Thanhawla and Zoramthanga, the incumbent chief minister wins, albeit narrowly: 33.8 percent to 30.1 percent.

Conclusion

CVoter has warned that if the Congress gets wiped out in the North East, it may have implications for the grand old party in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls.

Mizoram's 40-member Assembly is slated to go to the polls on 28 November.


Updated Date: Nov 09, 2018 21:03 PM

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